Avery, C., Fairbanks, A., & Zeckhauser, R. (2004).
The Early Admissions Game: Joining the Elite.
Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
389 pp.
$16.95 ISBN 0-674-01620-3
Reviewed by Stephanie Dalton
Memorial University of Newfoundland
October 11, 2005
Written by Christopher Avery and Richard Zeckhauser,
professors of public policy and political economy respectively,
at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, and Andrew Fairbanks,
a former associate dean of admissions at Wesleyan University,
The Early Admissions Game is an informative and
comprehensive work in the controversial area of elite college and
university admissions. The book is based on five years of
meticulous historical and statistical research by the three
informed scholars that included the analyses of more than 500,000
applications to fourteen elite institutions in the American
post-secondary education sector, a survey of 3,000 potential
applicants, and hundreds of interviews with current and former
applicants, high school counselors and admissions deans.
Through an analysis of the efforts of elite
colleges and universities to competitively attract the most
talented students (which improves their standing in national
ranking systems), and an examination of the strategic efforts of
talented students to secure acceptance at their preferred
institutions (which improves their social networks and future
incomes), the book details the reality of early admissions
policy. The authors discuss a range of differences in early
admission rules and acceptance rates for a variety of elite
colleges and universities as well as the characteristics and
opinions of applicants to reveal how early applications work, the
decision-making tactics of elite institutions, and the advantages
and disadvantages of applying early for all stakeholders.
Complete with historical facts, statistical data and case
studies, the book explicates the complex admissions process in a
language a variety of readers can understand; it completes the
analyses by offering guidelines and recommendations to assist
potential applicants navigate the admissions process and
successfully gain admittance to the institution of their choice.
The Introduction: Joining the Game presents
a concise description of the benefits of attending an elite
institution as well as an explanation for the growing interest in
gaining admission. This is followed by an overview of the
research methodology and an outline of the book’s
organization. In addition to presenting the authors’
central research question–Is it advantageous to apply
early?–and their conclusion that early application does
provide an advantage in admissions decisions, the authors note
their evidence suggests that some elite colleges and universities
provide disparate treatment of students who apply early versus
regular admission and this treatment can influence the
probability that an individual will gain admission to their
preferred institution. The highlight of this chapter is the
authors’ summary of the undesirable social consequences of
early admissions policies. In general, they can harm students
from disadvantaged households, those who rely heavily on
financial aid, minority students, and those who do not have
access to a well-informed network of friends or guidance
counselors.
Chapter 1, The History of Early Admissions, provides an
illuminating derivation and evolution of the game from its
genesis in the seventeenth century to the present day. The
chapter commences by documenting events to the mid–1960s in
which elite colleges and universities attempted to gain an
advantage over their competitors and attract the most talented
students by strategically adapting their admissions policies. A
defining event in this period was in 1911, when Harvard,
Princeton, and Yale modified their admissions policies to relax
the Latin examination requirements for the express purpose of
attracting applicants from public schools in the Midwest and the
West (where Latin was not part of the curriculum). The chapter
continues with an account of the controversial A-B-C programs, on
which today’s early decision and early action programs are
based, that provided students at feeder schools with a
preliminary assessment of their admissions likelihood before the
regular application deadline. Next, the authors trace the
transition to and development of early decision and early action
programs over the period 1950–1980, followed by an
explanation of the significant and rapid growth of early
applications that occurred between 1980 and 2000 as elite
colleges and universities intensified their recruiting efforts to
compensate for anticipated demographic changes that were expected
to result in a decline in the number of applicants. The chapter
concludes with an account of developments since 2000 that can be
characterized as attempts by colleges and universities to
strategically adapt their early admissions program to
strategically and competitively attract more applicants.
Chapter 2, The State of the Game, provides an overview
of the two main early admissions programs including lucid
definitions of the terminology that those unfamiliar with the
literature in this area will find beneficial. The authors note
that, despite the prevalence of early admissions programs, the
rules have not been standardized across colleges and
universities. In general, early decision is a program in which
students apply early to one school and are informed early whether
or not they have been accepted. This application is binding and
requires an accepted applicant to commit to enroll. Early action
is a program in which students apply early to one or more schools
and are informed early whether or not they have been accepted,
rejected or deferred. This application is nonbinding and accepted
students are given until the regular date to
respond—allowing them to compare multiple offers of
admission and financial aid. The chapter concludes with two
relevant and useful statistical sections: the first provides a
demographic breakdown of who applies early versus regular
admission and the second provides application and admission rates
for early and regular applicants for a number of institutions.
Key findings include the following: early applications are
predominantly from non-minorities from privileged backgrounds;
and, every elite college and university admits a higher
percentage of early applicants than regular applicants.
Chapter 3, Martian Blackjack: What Do Applicants Understand
about Early Admissions? elegantly describes how the enigmatic
nature of early admissions programs has created substantial
confusion for potential applicants. Using a metaphor that
compares the early admissions process with an extraterrestrial
game of blackjack, the authors reveal that their research shows
early application rules: vary across colleges and universities,
frequently change, and are understood more among students at
elite private schools than those at public schools. In describing
the game the authors write, "The players (applicants) do not know
the rules (that is, the standards for admission), and the casinos
(college admissions offices) do not describe them, at least not
fully or accurately" (p. 71). The chapter continues by detailing
the lack of clear and consistent advice communicated from various
official sources such as colleges, college guidebooks, and
guidance counselors. The range of obscure and contradictory
information is concisely conveyed in a table of information
disseminated in 1999 college guides: effects associated with
applying early include, “Does not mention”,
“More advantageous for colleges than for students”
and “Advantageous at some (less competitive
schools)”. Recommended strategies are equally obscure and
dispersed and include “None,” “Aim for Early
Action if possible,” and “Apply early (EA or ED) only
if you are sure that the school is your first choice and you
definitely want to go there.”.
In Chapter 4, The Innocents Abroad: The Admissions
Voyage, the authors restore order to the chaos introduced in
the preceding chapter and demystify the admissions process by
tracking the application and admissions experiences of 58
talented seniors from two very different high schools: Choate
Rosemary Hall is a private boarding school in Connecticut
composed of students from both inside and outside the United
States; Needham High School is a public school located in an
affluent Boston suburb. The authors document the diverse
perspectives and levels of sophistication of the rules governing
the early admission programs held by the two groups of students
and describe how these influenced the actions and strategies the
students employed from the summer preceding their final year of
high school through the completion of the admissions process.
This is where the research goes further than most existing
literature: in addition to documenting the diverse outcomes, the
authors examine the beliefs the students held about the
admissions process and the recommendations they had for other
students. The authors find that while most students were admitted
to their first- or second-choice college or university, only 33%
were aware that applying early would give them an advantage in
the admissions process; students in this group not only fared
better in their outcomes, they were concentrated primarily in
private schools, and were more able to draw upon informed
counselors and social networks for advice.
Chapter 5, The Truth about Early
Applications, narrows its focus to the results of a detailed
statistical analysis in which the advantage of applying early
over regular decision was computed and compared for a number of
individual applicants and elite colleges and universities. The
chapter is quite dense in places but it is well-organized,
clearly presented, and underscores the authors’ conclusion
that applying early significantly increases an individuals chance
of acceptance at an elite institution. That an advantage accrues
to early applicants should be of little surprise to those
familiar with the literature in the area; it confirms anecdotal
evidence that has been fuelling an increase in the number of
early applications received each year (currently standing at
approximately 100,000). However, what sets Avery, Zeckhauser
& Fairbanks's findings apart from other research in the field
is that they identify the magnitude of the advantage: for the
average applicant, the applying early decision approximately
doubles an individual’s chance for admission at Brown and
triples them at Princeton. On average, even after controlling for
factors that have been known to influence admissions decisions,
such as being the child of an alumni or having recruited athletic
status, applying early action over regular decision increases an
individuals chance of admission by 18.9% (the equivalent of
approximately a 100 point increase in SAT); the applying early
decision over regular decision enhances an individuals chance by
34.8% (the equivalent of approximately a 190 point increase in
SAT).
Overall, this chapter presents some of the most comprehensive
data available on acceptance rates at elite institutions
including a distribution of early and regular acceptance rates
for specific ranges of SAT scores for a variety of institutions.
The data enables applicants to determine the magnitude of their
individual advantage of applying early over regular decision
dependent upon their SAT score and preferred institution. Among
the authors’ other findings are: most elite colleges and
universities admit a higher percentage of early applicants than
regular applicants; early decision applicants have slightly less
impressive extracurricular records, SAT scores, and class rank
than regular applicants; and early action applicants are slightly
weaker than regular applicants. Contrary to the authors’
findings, colleges and universities maintain that statistical
analyses cannot replace the detailed review of a students’
entire application material and that the early applicant pool is
actually comprised of students that are more talented than
regular applicants—resulting in a higher acceptance rate
among this group.
Chapter 6, The Game Revealed: Strategies of
Colleges, Counselors, and Applicants, rigorously situates the
strategies commonly used by stakeholders in the early admissions
game in the context of the authors’ research. The
strategies are presented with impressive clarity and supported
with a wealth of data including an explanation of statistical
significance and regression analysis that those lacking a
statistical background will find elucidating. The chapter
effectively ties together the first five chapters of the book and
will be of interest to those with a research interest in
education policy analysis. For elite colleges and universities,
early application has several advantages, it helps them: identify
talented students that have selected them as an unequivocal
first-choice institution; plan enrollment levels by increasing
yield (percentage of accepted students that enroll); improve
their position in national ratings systems that give substantial
weight to yield and selectivity, minimize financial aid
commitments as early decision students forfeit the possibility of
negotiating financial aid; and, compete for talented applicants.
According to the authors, however, the reality is that early
admissions programs unwittingly reduce admission standards for
this group of applicants; paradoxically having the potential to
increase the number of early application, thereby increasing the
institutions’ appeal, lowering their acceptance rate,
increasing their yield, and improving their ranking in
influential national rating systems.
The chapter also presents two further analyses: one of
students’ reasons for applying early and a second of the
role that guidance counselors play in the process. The authors
find that most students approach the early admissions process
strategically; however, the majority of early decision applicants
are choosing their institution less on the basis of what best
matches their preference (31%) and more on the basis of whether
there is an increased chance of admission and a larger benefit
from applying early (46%). Other reasons for applying early are:
to end the process quickly (10%), on the advice of parents or
counselors (4%), and other (8%). For guidance counselors, the
opportunity to work in an elite private school where there are
typically a reduced numbers of students with less serious
counseling requirements has its caveats. Counselors are
increasingly being asked to play matchmaker, limit applications,
slot applicants, provide information, guide students, and act as
advocates for colleges and universities. Furthermore,
decision-making is normally made under competing pressures to:
maintain or enhance their schools reputation by placing complete
graduating classes and increasing the percentage of graduates
that are admitted to elite colleges and universities, preserve
their own reputation for subsequent years communications with
colleges and universities, and mitigate the impact that decisions
that act in the interest of one students has on others.
Chapter 7, Advice to Applicants, is highly informative
and is what makes this book stand out from other publications in
the area. Drawing upon the authors’ empirical evidence, it
offers insight into the elite college and university admissions
process and advice and recommendations for potential applicants.
High school students, parents, and guidance counselors will find
the ten-step guide to assist potential applicants navigate the
early admissions process very useful. Among their suggestions,
the authors recommend that students: start the process early;
take the decision seriously; and make a decision considering the
strengths and weaknesses of their individual qualifications,
academic and social match, first-choice institution, probability
of acceptance, and financial aid options. The chapter also
includes an admissions calculator, or probability model, that
students who are deciding whether to apply early or regular
admission can use to assess their likelihood of securing
admission to the institution of their choice. Given that the
authors find that: early applicants are being accepted in greater
numbers than regular applicants, elite colleges and universities
are not admitting students indiscriminately, and that applying
early it is not universally advantageous and can even be
detrimental for some students, the model is particularly
valuable.
The concluding chapter, The Essence of the Game and Some
Possible Reforms, sets out to explore alternatives ways of
informing colleges and universities to talented students’
first choice, identify potential modifications to the early
admissions system, and assess the likelihood of their
implementation. Many of the proposals are grounded and concrete,
including one to eliminate early decision programs and another
suggesting change to the methodology of national rating systems
to consider only the yield on regular decision applications.
However, despite the convincingly defined advantages and the
disadvantages of existing early admissions policies, the authors
speculate that the foreseeable future will likely unfold with
some reforms, few radical changes, and a static or upward trend
in the number of early applications. Their conclusion is based on
a number of reasons including two concomitant and competing
concerns that perpetuate the cycle: first, implementing a
universal reform in precluded by antitrust rulings that prohibit
collective action; and, second, most elite colleges and
universities are reluctant to change their admissions policies
before and unless their competitors do. The authors ultimately
conclude "The most promising path to reform, we believe, lies
with providing better information to applicants" (p. 293). The
concluding chapter is followed by an update on changes to early
admissions programs since the book was first published in 2003.
As previously speculated by the authors, the changes have
resulted in an increased number of applications, increased
complexity of the programs, and increased confusion for
students.
Overall, The Early Admissions Game is an
informative read on the subject of elite college and university
admissions; it makes a meaningful contribution to the admissions
literature and fills an informational void on the implications of
the early admission programs for both institutions and students.
It is an essential read for high school seniors intending to
apply to a selective college or university in the near future,
especially those with limited access to well-informed counselors
and social networks. It is also an essential addition to high
school and public libraries, admissions officers, and counselors
offering guidance and resources to students preparing their
applications. The book also makes an important contribution to
the scholarly research on college and university admissions and
is an important addition to post-secondary libraries.
Although the books key strength, a strong reliance
on numerical evidence, statistical analyses, charts, tables, and
graphs may give the impression of heavy reading in sections, this
does not come at the expense of a narrow audience; the authors
present a variety of information clearly, succinctly and with a
high degree of organization. The conversational tone and humorous
focus on games theory makes this interesting and easy to read for
a variety of stakeholders including high school seniors, parents,
counselor, scholars and researchers. For those applying to elite
colleges and universities in the near future, I also recommend
Jacques Steinberg's The Gatekeepers: Inside the Admissions
Process of a Premier College, although its focus is a bit
narrower it does provide some beneficial advice for potential
applicants, and, A is for Admission: The Insider’s Guide
to Getting into the Ivy League and Other Top Colleges by
Michele Hernandez. The latter focuses on what admissions officers
look for in applicants, tests scores and grades when deciding
whom to accept, and whether applying early decision assists
students in gaining admission to the institution of their
choice.
References
Hernandez, M.A. (1997). A is for admission: The
insider’s guide to getting into the Ivy League and other
top colleges. New York: Warner Books.
Steinberg, J. (2002). The gatekeepers: Inside the
admissions process of a premier college. New York:
Viking.
About the Reviewer
Stephanie Dalton is a doctoral candidate in
the Faculty of Education at Memorial University of Newfoundland.
She has in excess of 20 years experience working in a
post-secondary institution and currently manages the financial
and administrative activities of the School of Nursing at
Memorial. Her doctoral research is focused at the intersections
of post-secondary education, the economics of education, and
quantitative research methods.
Copyright is retained by the first or sole author,
who grants right of first publication to the Education Review.